The Dirty Dozen' With Greeme
Apr 14, 2013 17:04:20 GMT -5
Post by aar on Apr 14, 2013 17:04:20 GMT -5
1) Who do you think will ultimately be considered the biggest steal of this year's draft and why?
ummm, I didn't even have a second so I barely looked at the draft. The biggest steal was whoever John was talking about as a second round steal. Out of the lotto players I really like Crawford though I don't think you can call him a steal at 11. I think that Portis should have been taken around 10. There doesn't seem to be a hole in his game " Bobby Portis is a solid young big man. Slightly under developed. Can score inside and from midrange. Nice handles and quickness. Can block and board some. Nice late lotto selection." I guess he isn't as strong as others and doesn't look like that he is great at anything but should be a very good starter once he develops and looks to be bust proof. Out of the no-note players I think that Minnesota Timberwolves - Tyus Zimmermann SF 6'8'' 240 20 C+ B C B- C+ B looks very good. He has great starting ratings and if you look at the Minny roster the game has him ahead of Porter and Oliver, 2 lotto picks last year. Obviously needs camps and some tc luck but he could be the steal of the draft.
2) Not a lot of movement after Day 1 of FA, who do you think ended up with the best contract?
For the player or the team? I think that the 2 best contracts for the players were Jonny Flynn and Thomas Robinson. Flynn is the type of guy that you mle and extend if he starts playing well. I mean, his ratings look ok but 2.1 tos in 22 mpg?? I don't even know if all of his minutes were at pg, which makes that stat even uglier. I mean he just drafted hill so it isn't like he had to bring back Flynn at all costs. And why 5 yrs?? I just don't get it.
I really like Robinson but there is no way he should be maxed. Nothing special as far as stat defense, tos are a little high and %s are meh. Yes, he can probably get 20/10 in the right offense but you don't want him shooting that much. I would love him at a contract starting at 6-7 mil but a max? nah. He is very similar to Sully on a per minute basis, except for having higher tos, and I thought for awhile before agreeing to give sully a contract starting at 7.7 mil
Best contract for the team is James Simon for $36,000,000 over 6 years. He is a scoring beast. I don't know if he should start since he can't start at sf and being that he is a defensive liability, but as a backup 3/4 he would be a great fit. He is a great rebounder for a sf and has one of the best fg%s in the game. No other contract even comes close.
3) Do you think that Toronto is the favorite to win again next season?
Kind of hard to tell pretc. I think that if DJ was more proactive then they would be the easy favorite bc he has Crawford and Henderson who could be traded for win now talent. Or he could even move noel if he wanted to. Dj does have a penchant for sitting on his players so I will go under the assumption that he doesn't move either. Assuming he doesn't move either then you have to wonder if tc will be kind to Av/Humphries/Deron. Even with all the noise surrounding Mirotic I think that Deron is the engine that makes this team run and they will be hard pressed to get back to the finals if he has a significant drop. Grizz obviously will make noise again although their tc also should be watched carefully. I liked the Cavs. They brought back Dalembert and Varnado to go with Mac and nate. Gutsy move getting LBJ and Wade. I would like to see them move morris for some depth but I see them as a contender. I think that if Play took this team seriously then he could be a top 5 team. All he has to do is get a decent pg and he will be very good. But then we would all say that he just took over Rcc's team so maybe that is why he doesn't really seem to want to make this team better.
4) Which player do you think has the worst contract in the league?
Wow, I get to look through all the rosters in the league? Fun. I have heard people complain about lowry, melo, lou Williams, wade and lbj's contracts but they are superstars. They might go down as they get older but look at kobe and redd, still producing at a very high level. Also guys like Flynn and Jennings are not worth their contracts but since they top out at 7 mil, the contracts can't cause much damage.
Let's look at the contenders– amare, t-rob, yao ming, glen davis, gil arenas, tony parker
Davis and Gil both get a pass because their contracts are only 2 years, t-rob is still young enough that he can get better and at the least he shouldn't get worse during the length of the contract, amare is an slightly above average big on a stiff 4 yr deal, Yao has been getting worse and is 36.
So the winner(loser) is Tony parker. I don't think that he should start and while his contract is only 11.5-14.5, he is 34 and signed for four years. At least Yao and Amare will make positive contributions during that time period.
5) Do you regret trading Meanwell?
Not at all. Even though Meanwell is only 21 and Pleiss is 26, I'm not sure that Meanwell has a lot of room to grow. He likely started off with relatively low pot while Pleiss probably started off with high pot. All that is obviously supposition but if meanwell has hidden high pot then he probably wouldn't have started off with such high ratings. Currently they are similar as far as tos, rebounding and blocks. Meanwell has a much better fg%. Pleiss has a much better ft% and higher spg. He is also assumedly a better poste defender. Obviously the key for Don was Meanwell's age and contract but since I was over the softcap anyway his lower contract meant little to me. I think that Pleiss is and likely will be the better player but that Meanwell has more objective value given age and contract. On the other hand I got Rudy for Kobe. Rudy is a true star and Kobe will retire in a year or 2 so I think that for me it was a good trade. On the other hand it is a great trade for Don bc he shed a ton of cap and received one of the best young players in the game.
6) Is Quincy Acy still the most valuable trade asset in the league?
Yup. I think that he isn't as good as when he had the ungodly fg% and he would be better if he stopped shooting threes but there is no arguing that he can do it all. Rebounds, blks, stls, great %s, volume scorer, low tos. Add that to being only 26 and locked up for five more years on a contract with tops out at 13 mil and you have the best trade asset in the league. Lots of talented guys in the league but some are expiring or locked up for only another year, some are closing in on 30, aka the year the value dies, and others have significant holes in their games.
7) Do you think we will ever end up seeing an incarnation of BBS using the new FBB?
Yup. There are a lot of gms who are just set in their ways. If the new FBB is even slightly better then why won't we use it? It will take some getting used to but probably not that much. And of course guys who are new to sim leagues and don't know either game will prefer the new game. While it looks more complex it probably isn't exactly rocket science and only will take a couple weeks to get used to. The truth of the matter is that most of the extra functions could probably get turned off and even if there are minor improvements (passing actually meaning something, not having a drive defense rating which means little, splitting up ft and jump shot rating) it will make the game a lot more enjoyable.
8) John alluded to a team getting a really good player in the 2nd round. Who do you think it is?
That is the million dollar question. Well, john crossed 4 names off the list for us so it is down to 25. I'm going to go with Boston Celtics - Luke Stewart SF 6'9'' 221 22 C+ C+ D+ C+ C C. of course it could just as easily be any of the other players depending on how much pot they have. Two other second rounder that I like are 13. Miami Heat - Aaron Schwartz PG 6'1'' 197 20 C C+ B- B- C C and Denver Nuggets - Louis Newcomb PF 6'10'' 237 22 C+ B+ D C+ C+ C. The truth is that while I like the fact that there are occasional good players in the second round I really don't like the randomness of it. A team lucking into a star at the right point can turn a good team into a 10 yr dynasty.
9) Which team do you think will be better off in the next three seasons after their trade: Suns or Cavs?
Suns Trade:
LeBron James
Dwyane Wade
Royal Ivey
Cavs Trade:
Klay Thompson
Darren Collison
Samuel Dalembert
Brandan Wright
In the next three seasons, I think that the Cavs will be better off although they have to make some more moves. I think that Ivey is a nice fit next to LBJ and Wade. Ivey takes care of the ball and plays some D. That should be enough for the next three years. Ty Lawson probably will be the odd man out because what he does best, shoot, is kind of moot next to wade and LBJ. Morris will be a solid backup at 2/3. It seems that they will go with templeton and macvan up front with Varnado backing them up. I think that Templeton came into his own last year backing up multiple positions and it would be a shame to limit him to pf. Also, they need a fourth big. If they can move Lawson or morris for depth, especially up front, they should do so. I would like them better with a defensive big and templeton as a supersub. The Cavs will have to move one of them anyway or risk losing macvan in the offseason. It is kind of silly to look at the Suns because Skillz will have another 8 trades done by the end of the season. I think this was mostly a contract dump for skillz and he didn't want to deal with lbj and wade long term. I assume that he will try collision at pg to start but the tos will probably overcome him again. If collision can't play point then play will have to make a move for a pg. Since he seems to have fallen in love with Quincy davis, he will probably try to get a blocking big to play next to him and maybe move brook to the 3/4/5/ backup. Collision/klay/ak47/quincy/dalembert with brook backing up 3/4/5 doesn't look good but I'm sure that somehow Skillz will make it work.
10) If you could only keep one player on your team, who would it be and why?
Gay is the best player on my team but he hit the magic 30 with is a value killer in this league. Somewhat a shame because he just had his best season. Pleiss and Kawhi are probably my most valuable pieces with Pleiss slightly more valuable based on the interest I have gotten. He blocks shots, steals and rebounds well. His tos are low and he is a good ft shooter. If he can get his fg% back into the 45-46 range that helps his value even more. Kawhi is a shut down defender with high steals, as well as a good outside shooter. Still, the blocks get Pleiss the nod here and are the main reason that all my trade talks end up coming around to him.
11) Who will win the Pacific Division this season?
The Clippers. Rcc got Davis, bazz and parsons. Play added withey, skinner. Hmmm wonder who did a better job. In any case the clippers have one of the best 2-5s in the league with a massive hole at pg. Play still has cap to pick one up. I would overpay for Udofia but who knows what he will do. He also has a bunch of interesting young players spread out on various rosters so he definitely has pieces to move for a pg if he strikes out in fa. The only thing that is holding play back is play, mostly because he knows that he can't really take credit for this team so he is kind of stuck in limbo.
12) Can the Bulls keep Wiggins, Dakari, Parker and Smart and still survive their CY or does one need to go? Who would you trade first?
Nah, the East is too tough. I think that Dakari will need a few seasons; there is no way that Spencer made Meanwell with upside so while I wouldn’t rush to label Dakari a bust I wouldn't expect him to come in and play at Meanwell's level. The Bulls got their sg in Redd and, while not my cup of tea, Smart is a poor man's Rondo and capable of starting. The million dollar question is who do you move out of Wiggins/parker. Wiggins is slightly better but a year ahead. They are both semi-busts so far but that could change with one big tc. Neither are stat defenders and they both have a minor to problem. The question is also if you move them before tc or after. The safe move is to trade them before because if either look the same after another tc that will mean a major hit to their value. I would play it safe in cy and move one now but Ashes doesn't seem to be in a rush so I guess he will just trade whoever looks worse after the next tc. It also wouldn't shock me if he holds onto his prospects too long trying to make cy with his current team and ends up having to trade 2 of them in order to make cy. That is the classic recipe for getting cyd.
ummm, I didn't even have a second so I barely looked at the draft. The biggest steal was whoever John was talking about as a second round steal. Out of the lotto players I really like Crawford though I don't think you can call him a steal at 11. I think that Portis should have been taken around 10. There doesn't seem to be a hole in his game " Bobby Portis is a solid young big man. Slightly under developed. Can score inside and from midrange. Nice handles and quickness. Can block and board some. Nice late lotto selection." I guess he isn't as strong as others and doesn't look like that he is great at anything but should be a very good starter once he develops and looks to be bust proof. Out of the no-note players I think that Minnesota Timberwolves - Tyus Zimmermann SF 6'8'' 240 20 C+ B C B- C+ B looks very good. He has great starting ratings and if you look at the Minny roster the game has him ahead of Porter and Oliver, 2 lotto picks last year. Obviously needs camps and some tc luck but he could be the steal of the draft.
2) Not a lot of movement after Day 1 of FA, who do you think ended up with the best contract?
For the player or the team? I think that the 2 best contracts for the players were Jonny Flynn and Thomas Robinson. Flynn is the type of guy that you mle and extend if he starts playing well. I mean, his ratings look ok but 2.1 tos in 22 mpg?? I don't even know if all of his minutes were at pg, which makes that stat even uglier. I mean he just drafted hill so it isn't like he had to bring back Flynn at all costs. And why 5 yrs?? I just don't get it.
I really like Robinson but there is no way he should be maxed. Nothing special as far as stat defense, tos are a little high and %s are meh. Yes, he can probably get 20/10 in the right offense but you don't want him shooting that much. I would love him at a contract starting at 6-7 mil but a max? nah. He is very similar to Sully on a per minute basis, except for having higher tos, and I thought for awhile before agreeing to give sully a contract starting at 7.7 mil
Best contract for the team is James Simon for $36,000,000 over 6 years. He is a scoring beast. I don't know if he should start since he can't start at sf and being that he is a defensive liability, but as a backup 3/4 he would be a great fit. He is a great rebounder for a sf and has one of the best fg%s in the game. No other contract even comes close.
3) Do you think that Toronto is the favorite to win again next season?
Kind of hard to tell pretc. I think that if DJ was more proactive then they would be the easy favorite bc he has Crawford and Henderson who could be traded for win now talent. Or he could even move noel if he wanted to. Dj does have a penchant for sitting on his players so I will go under the assumption that he doesn't move either. Assuming he doesn't move either then you have to wonder if tc will be kind to Av/Humphries/Deron. Even with all the noise surrounding Mirotic I think that Deron is the engine that makes this team run and they will be hard pressed to get back to the finals if he has a significant drop. Grizz obviously will make noise again although their tc also should be watched carefully. I liked the Cavs. They brought back Dalembert and Varnado to go with Mac and nate. Gutsy move getting LBJ and Wade. I would like to see them move morris for some depth but I see them as a contender. I think that if Play took this team seriously then he could be a top 5 team. All he has to do is get a decent pg and he will be very good. But then we would all say that he just took over Rcc's team so maybe that is why he doesn't really seem to want to make this team better.
4) Which player do you think has the worst contract in the league?
Wow, I get to look through all the rosters in the league? Fun. I have heard people complain about lowry, melo, lou Williams, wade and lbj's contracts but they are superstars. They might go down as they get older but look at kobe and redd, still producing at a very high level. Also guys like Flynn and Jennings are not worth their contracts but since they top out at 7 mil, the contracts can't cause much damage.
Let's look at the contenders– amare, t-rob, yao ming, glen davis, gil arenas, tony parker
Davis and Gil both get a pass because their contracts are only 2 years, t-rob is still young enough that he can get better and at the least he shouldn't get worse during the length of the contract, amare is an slightly above average big on a stiff 4 yr deal, Yao has been getting worse and is 36.
So the winner(loser) is Tony parker. I don't think that he should start and while his contract is only 11.5-14.5, he is 34 and signed for four years. At least Yao and Amare will make positive contributions during that time period.
5) Do you regret trading Meanwell?
Not at all. Even though Meanwell is only 21 and Pleiss is 26, I'm not sure that Meanwell has a lot of room to grow. He likely started off with relatively low pot while Pleiss probably started off with high pot. All that is obviously supposition but if meanwell has hidden high pot then he probably wouldn't have started off with such high ratings. Currently they are similar as far as tos, rebounding and blocks. Meanwell has a much better fg%. Pleiss has a much better ft% and higher spg. He is also assumedly a better poste defender. Obviously the key for Don was Meanwell's age and contract but since I was over the softcap anyway his lower contract meant little to me. I think that Pleiss is and likely will be the better player but that Meanwell has more objective value given age and contract. On the other hand I got Rudy for Kobe. Rudy is a true star and Kobe will retire in a year or 2 so I think that for me it was a good trade. On the other hand it is a great trade for Don bc he shed a ton of cap and received one of the best young players in the game.
6) Is Quincy Acy still the most valuable trade asset in the league?
Yup. I think that he isn't as good as when he had the ungodly fg% and he would be better if he stopped shooting threes but there is no arguing that he can do it all. Rebounds, blks, stls, great %s, volume scorer, low tos. Add that to being only 26 and locked up for five more years on a contract with tops out at 13 mil and you have the best trade asset in the league. Lots of talented guys in the league but some are expiring or locked up for only another year, some are closing in on 30, aka the year the value dies, and others have significant holes in their games.
7) Do you think we will ever end up seeing an incarnation of BBS using the new FBB?
Yup. There are a lot of gms who are just set in their ways. If the new FBB is even slightly better then why won't we use it? It will take some getting used to but probably not that much. And of course guys who are new to sim leagues and don't know either game will prefer the new game. While it looks more complex it probably isn't exactly rocket science and only will take a couple weeks to get used to. The truth of the matter is that most of the extra functions could probably get turned off and even if there are minor improvements (passing actually meaning something, not having a drive defense rating which means little, splitting up ft and jump shot rating) it will make the game a lot more enjoyable.
8) John alluded to a team getting a really good player in the 2nd round. Who do you think it is?
That is the million dollar question. Well, john crossed 4 names off the list for us so it is down to 25. I'm going to go with Boston Celtics - Luke Stewart SF 6'9'' 221 22 C+ C+ D+ C+ C C. of course it could just as easily be any of the other players depending on how much pot they have. Two other second rounder that I like are 13. Miami Heat - Aaron Schwartz PG 6'1'' 197 20 C C+ B- B- C C and Denver Nuggets - Louis Newcomb PF 6'10'' 237 22 C+ B+ D C+ C+ C. The truth is that while I like the fact that there are occasional good players in the second round I really don't like the randomness of it. A team lucking into a star at the right point can turn a good team into a 10 yr dynasty.
9) Which team do you think will be better off in the next three seasons after their trade: Suns or Cavs?
Suns Trade:
LeBron James
Dwyane Wade
Royal Ivey
Cavs Trade:
Klay Thompson
Darren Collison
Samuel Dalembert
Brandan Wright
In the next three seasons, I think that the Cavs will be better off although they have to make some more moves. I think that Ivey is a nice fit next to LBJ and Wade. Ivey takes care of the ball and plays some D. That should be enough for the next three years. Ty Lawson probably will be the odd man out because what he does best, shoot, is kind of moot next to wade and LBJ. Morris will be a solid backup at 2/3. It seems that they will go with templeton and macvan up front with Varnado backing them up. I think that Templeton came into his own last year backing up multiple positions and it would be a shame to limit him to pf. Also, they need a fourth big. If they can move Lawson or morris for depth, especially up front, they should do so. I would like them better with a defensive big and templeton as a supersub. The Cavs will have to move one of them anyway or risk losing macvan in the offseason. It is kind of silly to look at the Suns because Skillz will have another 8 trades done by the end of the season. I think this was mostly a contract dump for skillz and he didn't want to deal with lbj and wade long term. I assume that he will try collision at pg to start but the tos will probably overcome him again. If collision can't play point then play will have to make a move for a pg. Since he seems to have fallen in love with Quincy davis, he will probably try to get a blocking big to play next to him and maybe move brook to the 3/4/5/ backup. Collision/klay/ak47/quincy/dalembert with brook backing up 3/4/5 doesn't look good but I'm sure that somehow Skillz will make it work.
10) If you could only keep one player on your team, who would it be and why?
Gay is the best player on my team but he hit the magic 30 with is a value killer in this league. Somewhat a shame because he just had his best season. Pleiss and Kawhi are probably my most valuable pieces with Pleiss slightly more valuable based on the interest I have gotten. He blocks shots, steals and rebounds well. His tos are low and he is a good ft shooter. If he can get his fg% back into the 45-46 range that helps his value even more. Kawhi is a shut down defender with high steals, as well as a good outside shooter. Still, the blocks get Pleiss the nod here and are the main reason that all my trade talks end up coming around to him.
11) Who will win the Pacific Division this season?
The Clippers. Rcc got Davis, bazz and parsons. Play added withey, skinner. Hmmm wonder who did a better job. In any case the clippers have one of the best 2-5s in the league with a massive hole at pg. Play still has cap to pick one up. I would overpay for Udofia but who knows what he will do. He also has a bunch of interesting young players spread out on various rosters so he definitely has pieces to move for a pg if he strikes out in fa. The only thing that is holding play back is play, mostly because he knows that he can't really take credit for this team so he is kind of stuck in limbo.
12) Can the Bulls keep Wiggins, Dakari, Parker and Smart and still survive their CY or does one need to go? Who would you trade first?
Nah, the East is too tough. I think that Dakari will need a few seasons; there is no way that Spencer made Meanwell with upside so while I wouldn’t rush to label Dakari a bust I wouldn't expect him to come in and play at Meanwell's level. The Bulls got their sg in Redd and, while not my cup of tea, Smart is a poor man's Rondo and capable of starting. The million dollar question is who do you move out of Wiggins/parker. Wiggins is slightly better but a year ahead. They are both semi-busts so far but that could change with one big tc. Neither are stat defenders and they both have a minor to problem. The question is also if you move them before tc or after. The safe move is to trade them before because if either look the same after another tc that will mean a major hit to their value. I would play it safe in cy and move one now but Ashes doesn't seem to be in a rush so I guess he will just trade whoever looks worse after the next tc. It also wouldn't shock me if he holds onto his prospects too long trying to make cy with his current team and ends up having to trade 2 of them in order to make cy. That is the classic recipe for getting cyd.
