Contract Year Roulette
Oct 11, 2012 0:07:52 GMT -5
Post by Erbes on Oct 11, 2012 0:07:52 GMT -5
[glow=blue,2,300]Contract Year Roulette!![/glow]
Hi guys! So there are a ton of teams on their CY this year; a total of 5. I'm going to try and breakdown the chances of each to make their ever looming deadline of 42 wins or playoffs. Obviously a lot can happen between the writing of this article and the start of the season.
5. New Orleans Hornets - Aar
Last season: 32-50
It's rare to find aar in his CY. He's a great GM who's easy to deal with and a pleasure to be around. Unfortunately, he made a bad decision leaving two seasons ago and now he's paying for it. Let's take a deeper look into Aar's chances.
Assets to trade:
585 Danny Granger SF 23 6'8'' 225 B- B- C B- C A
637 Andrea Bargnani PF 20 7'0'' 225 B- B C C C A
366 James White SG 23 6'7'' 200 B C C- C C A
NOH 1st round picks 07-11
ORL 1st round pick 07
IND 1st round picks 07-08
Aar has some solid pieces to trade, but nothing crazy good like a CP3 or an Andrew Bynum. Granger should definitely get some play, but people may want to see his TC before they decide to take that plunge... and it may be too late to at that point. I don't want to burst Aar's bubble, but those Indiana picks will be garbage. I plan on winning until the end of time. It may come down to what he can do with his own picks and how far in the future he's willing to deal to get studs.
Recommended moves:
Any move Aar is able to pull off is undoubtedly going to involve Granger. While unfortunate his roster is completely bare. My advice would be to build around an Oberto/James White core as dumb as that sounds. Oberto is a legit inside scorer and White looks to follow suit. Aar should try to convince GAME to rebuild. GAME doesn't have his pick this year, but Aar could package the Pacers and Magic picks to get his. Then ship GAME's pick plus Granger (plus some NOH picks probably) to GAME for Paul Pierce and Greg Ostertag. That would give the Hornets a core of Jason Williams-White-Pierce-Oberto-Diop/Ostertag with Bargnani off of the bench. He could probaly flip Bargs for a better SG as well. In other words he has options but he needs to convince people to take just above average prospects.
4. Los Angeles Clippers - hype
Last Season: 40-42
Hype just missed resetting his CY last season by two wins. So why is he so low on the list? I answer that with another question: when was the last time anybody heard from Hype? Equipped with arguably the best, young SG in the game it would appear Hype has a leg up on his competition, so why hasn't it translated to wins yet?
Assets to trade:
501 Dwyane Wade SG 24 6'4'' 210 A- C+ B B+ C A
214 Andrei Kirilenko SF 25 6'9'' 220 B B- C A C+ B
425 David Lee PF 23 6'9'' 249 B- C C+ C B A
LAC 1st rounds pick 08-11
Of all the teams on this list Hype might have the best core, lead by D-Wade. Even though he bitched like a little girl about the SF rule, David Lee beast at PF in his rookie season putting up 15/8/1 steal per game. He got raped for AK-47, but in reality 3.5 bpg would have been too good to pass up no matter how little lube was used. And while he doesn't have this year's pick, which nobody would be interested in anyways, he does have all his future picks. The more I think about it the more I like D-Wade as a top 15 player in value right now. Too bad he's never been camped to see his true potential.
Recommended moves:
It seems to me that the biggest weakness on this team is size and PG play. Calderon cannot be expected to win you games by any stretch of the imagination. If Hype was actually around he could have traded for Dirk to shore up SF, but alas he wasn't. Instead Hype should go back to the rape well. Greeme has made it apparent that he's willing to listen on his studs. I know he's extremely fond of Stevie Francis and it would probably take a boatload to pry him away, but he would have to listen if Hype came at him with David Lee and a pocketful of picks right? Francis-Wade-Odom-AK-Nene might be good enough to make CY in a tough CY. There's also no reason why he couldn't go after a guy like Marcus Camby on Cleveland, if they decide to tank. 32 and expiring shouldn't take more than a matching a first. That would solve his size problem up front.
3. Philadelphia 76ers - Haberhound
Last season: 35-47
One of my favorite GMs in the league, Habes, is also a very skilled GM. That skill is one of the reasons why I feel like he has a very good shot of making it. His roster needs work though. We all know he won't give up CP3 for nothing, but if he doesn't move fast he may have to. Same question as with Hype though, will Habes be around enough to make it? I think yes.
Assets to trade:
595 Chris Paul PG 21 6'0'' 175 B+ C+ B B C- A
638 Ben Gordon SG 23 6'3'' 200 B- A B B- C- C
406 Gerald Wallace SF 24 6'7'' 215 B C C- A- C+ A
427 Thabo Sefolosha SF 22 6'5'' 215 C+ C C+ A- C B
PHI 1st round picks 07-11
Habes is very clear he has no intention of "giving up" CP3 just to make his CY. But its like uhhhh you might have to bro! I think Ben is untradeable. There's no way he would get the value for him unless it's in a deal for Kobe or T-Mac. GW and Thabo are going to have nice BBS careers, but they shouldn't be with Philly. Those guys are very tradeable and should be moved with picks to get upgrades elsewhere. CP3-Gordon-Memo-
would make the playoffs in the East this year.Recommended moves:
Habes is probably going to laugh at me trying to recommend moves to him, but I'm going to do it anyways. His one glaring hole seems to be a big (or two). David West is okay, but he doesn't get you to next season. I know Habes has snuffed on Chris Webber before, but if he can get him cheap, which he should be able to do since he's 33 and expiring why wouldn't you take the rental? My wild card here is Dallas. They've been a middling team since the start of the league (just like the Pacers!) and have failed to find Chandler any help. If Greg decides to blow things up, would an offer of Gerald Wallace, Thabo, and 5 picks entice him to move TC? He'd have to think about it at least. Would Habes move CP3/Thabo or GW for TC and Hinrich/Barea? Only time will tell.
2. Toronto Raptors - djmyte
Last Season: 35-47
Call me a conspiracy theorist, but I think DJ is making his CY. We all know Spencer will keep him around. Kidding! I believe Spence is on his last limb with DJ and we might see a change soon. So why is DJ so high? Because I really like his roster. But c'mon dude! You have to be more active! DJ could make his CY with just slight adjustments in my eyes.
Assets to trade:
525 Daniel Gibson PG 20 6'2'' 190 C A- C C D A
15 Gilbert Arenas PG 24 6'3'' 191 B+ A- B- B+ C A
579 Ersan Ilyasova SF 19 6'9'' 235 B- C+ C- B C+ A
442 Caron Butler SF 26 6'7'' 235 B- B+ C B C A
TOR 1st round picks 07-11
Of all the rosters on here I think DJ's chances hinge most on TC. The drafting of Gibson finally gives DJ the option to move Arenas to SG and feel good about it. The Caron/Ersan combo at SF is filthy. Ersan would probably be a good candidate to either be a 1-5 sub or awesome trade bait. Again, like the 76ers, DJ has all his picks to be creative with. The biggest hole I see is a 2nd scorer. Agent Zero puts up 25 ppg, but nobody else, including high flying Jason Richardson, puts in more than 15 ppg.
Recommended moves:
To get that 2nd scorer DJ will have to get creative and he might have to pick over the leftovers of the other CY teams since he is so inactive. The Pistons are in full on tank mode. They've traded Wallace, Lue, and Dirk leaving Mike Redd still available. I understand that the Raptors backcourt is a little crowded with Arenas, Gibson, and J-Rich ensconced there, but he could always move Redd to SF. But wait what about Butler/Ersan!?! Those would be the guys moving to Detroit. A deal centered around Caron, Ersan, and maybe a couple of picks would have to be enough for Repole and would give him a sick core going forward. If DJ could move his picks for another young stud, a la a Dwight Howard type, would Greeme listen to a Caron, Ersan, young stud package for Kobe? Possibly.
1. Denver Nuggets - Brophdog
Last Season: 30-52
Well this one is a no-brainer after tonight's moves. I never doubted Broph to make his CY as I consider him top 5-7 around here on most days. He should easily make his CY this year, but the goal after tanking for 3 seasons is to win a championship... has he done enough to accomplish that goal?
Assets to trade:
523 Brandon Roy SG 22 6'6'' 215 B B+ B B C B
334 Oleksiy Pecherov PF 20 7'0'' 234 C+ C+ D- C+ C+ A
So Broph's strive for 42 really started last season with our Dwight for Marion deal. I think if hindsight is 20/20 we'd both do the same deal over again. Bynum was arugably his best chip after Dwight and he was able to bring back some legit talent like a stud prospect should do. We all know Roy is going to step in with his 85+ inside and put up 17-18 ppg without breaking a sweat. Pecherov should be an interesting case in TC to see if he can become a legit backup for Broph down the stretch.
Recommended moves:
Well this portion of the article is useless with Broph completing the first huge blockbuster of the league in my opinion by sending Bynum, his picks, my picks, and a PHX pick for Dirk, Tyronn Lue, and Ben Wallace. Like wow. I kind of think Broph won this deal only because those picks will be garbage, but maybe the last two can net Repole Roy when Dirk and Ben die. I think the Nuggets are extremely deep as well. Like I couldn't even propose a depth trade here. Broph said he wants to get a more traditional PF and maybe he can use Dirk as trade bait for guys like Tyson Chandler or Pau Gasol.
So in recap: Denver (100% chance of making it), Toronto (80%), Philadelphia (60%), Los Angeles Clippers (45%), New Orleans (30%)
Prove me wrong guys! And again I think the 76ers and Raptors' chances greatly increase if they have great TCs. They have a ton of young guys who can dominate with slight increases.
